Polymarket Sees Donald Trump’s 2024 Election Odds Soar to 61% Amid Alleged Market Manipulation

Amidst the dynamic landscape of U.S. politics, former President Donald Trump has seen his prospects for the 2024 presidential race soar on Polymarket, a popular prediction market platform. Currently, the platform indicates a 61% chance for Trump to emerge victorious in the upcoming election. Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris trails with a 40.3% likelihood. This shift marks a significant departure from earlier in the month when the odds between the two candidates were nearly at parity.

The sharp rise in Trump’s electoral odds has attracted significant attention, with many attributing this change to substantial wagers placed by a few high-stakes Trump supporters. Speculation is rife that these large bets may be artificially inflating the market’s perception of Trump’s chances, raising questions about potential manipulation.

A closer examination of the Polymarket activities reveals that four users—identified by the usernames Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie—have collectively wagered over $26 million in favor of Trump’s victory. These considerable bets have potentially skewed the odds, significantly boosting Trump’s chances on the platform. Particularly noteworthy is the activity of Fredi9999, who has been reportedly active in recent weeks, making sizable deposits from the cryptocurrency exchange Kraken and consistently placing bets on Trump across various prediction markets. This pattern of behavior has led some observers to suspect deliberate market manipulation.

The controversy surrounding these transactions has sparked debate about the integrity of Polymarket. Domer, a pseudonymous political betting analyst, has suggested that these pro-Trump accounts might be coordinating their efforts to artificially influence the odds in Trump’s favor. Domer highlighted a specific instance where a single bet increased Trump’s probability of winning the popular vote from 27% to 40% within a few hours, illustrating the potential impact of such large-scale betting.

Nate Geraci, President of ETF Store, also weighed in on the matter, pointing out that the substantial positions on Polymarket could be an attempt to create a false sense of momentum for Trump. This sentiment was echoed by crypto investor Adam Cochran, who speculated that the surge in betting activity could serve as a pretext for Trump to claim election rigging should he lose. Cochran, a Republican who supports Harris, warned that such tactics could undermine confidence in the electoral process.

In a related development, the bitcoin Voters Political Action Committee (PAC), a pro-Bitcoin organization, has launched a campaign ad in support of Trump. The advertisement, currently airing in Pennsylvania, underscores Trump’s burgeoning popularity within the cryptocurrency community. This aligns with the broader narrative of rising support among crypto enthusiasts for Trump’s potential return to the White House.

Adding to the discourse, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, a known Trump supporter, recently took to X (formerly Twitter) to highlight Trump’s lead on Polymarket. Musk underscored the reliability of prediction markets over traditional polls, citing the financial stakes involved as a factor that enhances their accuracy. This perspective resonates with several other pro-Trump commentators who argue that prediction markets offer a more precise gauge of electoral outcomes compared to conventional polling methods.

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election draws closer, the debate over the credibility of prediction markets and their influence on public perception is likely to intensify. The unfolding scenario on Polymarket serves as a microcosm of the broader political dynamics at play, highlighting the intersection of finance, technology, and politics in shaping electoral narratives.