Dogecoin (DOGE) Poised for $15 Surge Amid ETF Speculation, but On-Chain Metrics Signal Caution

Dogecoin (DOGE), the well-known meme-based cryptocurrency, continues to exhibit bullish behavior, trading above vital support levels amidst ongoing speculation. Analysts have set an ambitious price target of $15 for DOGE, predominantly driven by the anticipated launch of a Dogecoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). However, a closer examination of on-chain metrics raises concerns about the long-term viability of the cryptocurrency, indicating a potential stagnation that could undermine its recent momentum.

Crypto analyst Ali has forecasted that the price of DOGE could escalate to $15, contingent upon the approval and introduction of a DOGE ETF. In a recent discussion on social media platform X, Ali underscored that such an ETF could serve as a pivotal catalyst for a substantial price surge. Currently trading around $0.36, DOGE is displaying bullish potential as evidenced by its long-term chart patterns, which suggest a favorable outlook.

Ali’s analysis draws attention to the weekly candle chart of Dogecoin, which reveals a consistent upward trajectory within an ascending channel that has been in place since 2017. The chart indicates that DOGE is once again rebounding from the lower bounds of this channel, setting its sights on the ambitious target of $15. This technical analysis supports the notion that DOGE may be on the verge of a significant rally, provided external market conditions align favorably.

Despite the optimistic projections, the cryptocurrency’s recent performance has been marred by a notable decline in daily active addresses (DAA), a key metric that gauges the number of unique addresses engaging in transactions on the blockchain. Following a significant spike in November 2024, which saw DAA soar to over 1.6 million, the number has since plummeted to approximately 52,800. This drastic reduction in engagement suggests a waning interest among investors, potentially reflecting a broader market correction following the initial hype surrounding the cryptocurrency.

In addition to declining user engagement, data on Dogecoin’s Network Profit/Loss (NPL) indicates a sharp decrease in realized profits for investors. The NPL metric tracks the average profit or loss of DOGE tokens that change ownership daily. Following a peak of 1.11 billion in December 2024, the NPL has fallen significantly to around 2.32 million. This downward trend signifies diminishing bullish momentum and suggests that many investors are opting to secure profits, leading to increased selling pressure in the market.

As of January 24, DOGE is trading at approximately $0.361, reflecting a slight increase of about 5% from recent lows. The meme coin has shown resilience by bouncing back from the critical support level of $0.35, which has held firm against recent market fluctuations. However, technical indicators reveal that DOGE is currently trading within a constrained range, with the $0.40 mark acting as a formidable resistance barrier. A successful breakout above this level could propel the price towards $0.45, establishing a new local high. Conversely, the immediate support at $0.35 remains crucial, with further declines potentially facing a critical defense at $0.32.

Market sentiment around Dogecoin is complex, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 49, indicating that DOGE is in a neutral position on the 4-hour chart. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is showing signs of positivity, with the blue MACD line attempting to cross above the orange signal line. These indicators suggest a potential for upward movement, yet the prevailing on-chain metrics indicate declining engagement and profit-taking, creating an environment of uncertainty.

As investors weigh the potential for a rally against the backdrop of declining user engagement and profit realization, the future trajectory of Dogecoin remains uncertain. The interplay between speculation surrounding the ETF and underlying market fundamentals will play a critical role in determining whether DOGE can maintain its momentum or if it will succumb to the pressures of a cooling market. The coming weeks will be pivotal for Dogecoin, as it seeks to navigate this complex landscape while striving to achieve the ambitious price targets set by analysts.